Well, Well, Well. The World Cup Does Not Care About Your Odds, Prices, or Lines.

Every four years, the world stops for a month. Analysts build models, traders price outcomes, experts run the numbers.

Morocco vs Portugal - 2022 FIFA World Cup Quarterfinal

Portugal were priced at 77% to win. They had scored 12 goals in the tournament, had just dismantled Switzerland 6-1, and had Cristiano Ronaldo waiting on the bench. The market gave Morocco an 18% chance. Not impossible. Just very, very unlikely.

For 42 minutes, Portugal did everything the market expected. They pressed, they created, they hit the post. Morocco defended for their lives. The market was comfortable.

Then a long ball from the left, a hesitation from Diogo Costa, a collision with his own defender, and Youssef En-Nesyri rose above everyone to head it in. That was the moment every live position broke. A Morocco side that had already held Spain to 0-0 for 120 minutes now had a lead to protect. Nobody had priced that.

Fernandes hit the crossbar. Ronaldo came on in the 51st minute. He broke clear in the 90th. Bono saved it. 1-0.

Morocco had not beaten one giant at this World Cup. They had beaten Belgium, Spain, and now Portugal, without being outplayed once. Thirty six years since they last won a World Cup match. An entire continent watching.

Argentina vs Saudi Arabia - 2022 FIFA World Cup Group Stage

Argentina were priced at 87% to win. Saudi Arabia sat at roughly 5%. This was not a match. It was a formality. Argentina had not lost in 36 games. They were the pre-tournament favourites to win the whole thing. Saudi Arabia were ranked 51st in the world, their entire squad played in the domestic league back home, and no model gave them a realistic chance of even keeping it close.

Messi scored in the 10th minute. A penalty, calm as ever. Argentina then had three goals disallowed for offside in the first half. Saudi Arabia had not had a single shot. At halftime it was 1-0, and every position in the market was comfortable. The question was not whether Argentina would win. The question was by how much.

Then the second half started. Saudi Arabia's first shot of the entire match, in the 48th minute. Al-Shehri squeezed a low angled finish through the legs of Romero and into the corner. The market moved. Then, five minutes later, Al-Dawsari collected the ball at the edge of the area, cut inside two defenders, and curled it into the top corner. The market broke. A team with one shot had scored twice.

Argentina had 69% possession. 15 shot attempts to Saudi Arabia's 3. Messi tried everything. Nothing went in. The final whistle went and the Lusail Stadium fell silent. Argentina, favourites to win the World Cup, had just lost their opening group stage match to a team priced at 5%.

Argentina recovered, regrouped, and won the World Cup. Messi got his trophy. The story had a happy ending. But Saudi Arabia's moment did not disappear with it. If anything, beating the team that went on to lift the trophy made it more extraordinary. A 5% chance does not feel like an upset anymore. It feels like prophecy. This is one of those matches the streets will never forget. The market gave them 5%. They took three points and a piece of history.

Germany vs Japan - 2022 FIFA World Cup Group Stage

Germany were priced at 73% to win. Japan sat at 10%. Four time world champions against a side that had never beaten them in any competitive fixture. Germany had Neuer, Muller, Kimmich, Musiala. Germany were an Avengers level threat for Japan. But guess who assembled.

Germany took control from the first whistle. 80% possession at one point. Gundogan scored from the penalty spot in the 33rd minute. At halftime it was 1-0, and the market barely moved. Germany had been here before. They knew how to close out games. In the second half they hit the post, hit the crossbar, created chance after chance. Japan's goalkeeper Gonda made eight saves. Eight. The market stayed comfortable. Germany were not going to throw this away.

Then the 75th minute. Doan had been on the pitch for four minutes. He scored anyway. Against Manuel Neuer. Eight minutes later, a long ball over the top, Asano racing clear, holding off a defender, and squeezing it past Neuer from an impossible angle. Two substitutes. Both playing in the Bundesliga. Both scoring against the country whose league they played in every week. The market broke.

The numbers said Germany. The scoreboard said Japan. The Japan bench sprinted the length of the touchline. Thomas Muller stood in disbelief. Goretzka fired wide in stoppage time. The whistle went.

The Japan coach said after the game that he had seen Saudi Arabia beat Argentina the day before and believed. The market gave Japan 10%. On that night in Qatar, Asia gave the football world a lesson it did not see coming.

Costa Rica vs Italy - 2014 FIFA World Cup Group Stage

There is a David for every Goliath. Group D at the 2014 World Cup proved it better than most.

Group D was called the Group of Death. Uruguay, Italy, England and Costa Rica. Three former world champions and one small nation of five million people who had won just three World Cup matches in their entire history. Italy were priced at roughly 70% to win. Costa Rica sat at around 11%. The experts did not debate whether Costa Rica would go out. They debated which of the three giants would join them.

Costa Rica had other ideas. They had already beaten Uruguay 3-1 in their opening game. But Uruguay were beatable. Italy were different. Italy had Buffon, Pirlo, Chiellini, Balotelli. Italy had won the World Cup four times. Costa Rica had a squad of players from leagues most neutrals had never watched. The market was comfortable.

For 43 minutes, Italy had the ball and did very little with it. Balotelli missed two clear chances. Buffon had a nervy moment from his own backpass. The game drifted. Then Junior Diaz curled a cross to the back post and Bryan Ruiz, Costa Rica's captain, headed it in off the underside of the bar. One centimetre deeper and it does not go in. One centimetre. The market broke at halftime.

Italy pushed in the second half and found nothing. Costa Rica's defence, organised and relentless, gave them no way through. The whistle went. 1-0. Costa Rica, with three World Cup wins to their name coming into the tournament, had just knocked out two former world champions in the space of four days.

South Korea vs Germany - 2018 FIFA World Cup Group Stage

One does not simply eliminate the defending world champions in the group stage. But South Korea decided to walk into Mordor.

Germany were priced at 86% to win. South Korea sat at 5%. The defending world champions against a side that had already lost both of their group games and had nothing left to play for except pride. Germany needed a win to advance. South Korea needed a miracle just to finish third. The market was not even paying attention.

For 90 minutes, Germany did everything except score. They had 70% possession. 26 shot attempts. Nine corners. Jo Hyeon-Woo, South Korea's goalkeeper, made save after save. Germany hit the post. Germany missed from close range. The clock kept moving and the goal never came. By the end, nobody knew if Manuel Neuer was a goalkeeper or a false nine. That is how desperate it had become.

Then the 93rd minute. A corner, a scramble, a Toni Kroos miscontrol, and Kim Young-gwon fired into an empty net. The goal was initially ruled out for offside. VAR gave it. Germany were done. Three minutes later, Neuer was still stranded in the South Korean half when Son Heung-min received a long pass and rolled it into an empty net from 50 yards. The defending world champions, standing in an opposition penalty box, watched their tournament end in real time.

Germany had 26 shots. South Korea had 11. The stats were Germany's. The result was not. South Korea could not even qualify from the group despite winning. They went home third. Germany went home last.

FiveThirtyEight gave South Korea a 5% chance going into the match. The same model had Germany as the most likely team to win the entire tournament. Football has never cared about models. On that day in Kazan, it proved it once again.