The FA Cup Final: The One Chelsea Fans Stopped Believing They Would Ever Win Again

Three finals in a row. Lost. Chelsea return to Wembley carrying not just a fixture, but a wound.

Three finals in a row. Lost. A record no club in the history of this competition had ever set before them. The last time Chelsea won the FA Cup, Harry Kane was still at Spurs and Gareth Southgate had just taken England to a World Cup. That was 2018. Since then, Arsenal, Leicester, Liverpool, Manchester United, Man City, Crystal Palace. Everyone except them.

And now they are back. Managed by a man who left non-league football six years ago. Without half their attack. Against the team that has not lost to them in fourteen meetings. On Saturday at Wembley, Chelsea get to find out whether this season’s cup run is the end of something, or just another entry in a record they never wanted to hold.

Context

The Context Nobody Quite Saw Coming

At the start of this season, if you had told Chelsea supporters that they would reach the FA Cup final having gone through two managers already and be underdogs against City, most would have accepted the trade. They would have been wrong about the underdogs part. They would not have predicted how turbulent the route would be.

Liam Rosenior was sacked on April 22nd after Chelsea went five consecutive Premier League games without scoring. The worst run since 1912. The year the Titanic sank – and if you know how that one ends, you know the heart does not always go on.

Calum McFarlane, who left non-league football for Manchester City’s academy in 2020 and was coaching Chelsea’s Under-21s as recently as last summer, has been in the dugout ever since. His first match of this current spell in charge was the FA Cup semi-final win over Leeds. His second was a 3-1 league loss to Nottingham Forest. His third was a 1-1 draw at Anfield. His fourth, by some considerable margin the biggest of his life, is on Saturday at Wembley.

City, meanwhile, are navigating something even more complicated: playing an FA Cup final in the middle of a genuine Premier League title race. They beat Crystal Palace 3-0 on Wednesday, closing to within two points of Arsenal. Three days later, they travel to London and must somehow shift their minds from title arithmetic to cup football. Guardiola rested Haaland, Doku and Cherki on Wednesday precisely for this. The congestion is real.

Form

One side broken in the league. One side relentless.

Chelsea’s league form has been a disaster. Six defeats in seven before the Anfield draw, a run that stretched within one of the club’s all-time worst. But cup form tells a different story. Five wins from five to reach this final, including a 7-0 demolition of Port Vale and a controlled 1-0 semi-final win over Leeds. In the cup, at least, Chelsea have looked like a different team. More disciplined. Lower block. Hard to break down.

City have not lost a league match since January 17th. Fourteen league games unbeaten, ten wins and four draws. The title challenge has been built on relentlessness rather than brilliance, accumulating quietly while Arsenal stuttered and then didn’t. They are playing their best football of the season at exactly the right moment, which makes the Wembley pitch, and the three days of recovery before it, the only real questions hanging over them.

Injuries

The fitness puzzle is brutal on both sides.

Chelsea’s wide areas are almost entirely stripped bare. Estevao and Gittens are both listed as doubtful and unlikely to feature, while Mudryk serves a long suspension. Neto and Garnacho are both doubtful after picking up knocks in training. Robert Sanchez, who suffered a concussion against Forest, is also listed doubtful. McFarlane has a significant fitness puzzle to solve before Saturday’s team sheet.

City’s concern is Rodri. The Spaniard is listed as doubtful with a physical issue and is being monitored hour by hour. His absence in the kind of game where control matters most would be felt acutely. Josko Gvardiol, out for several months with a tibia fracture, returned to City’s starting lineup for Wednesday’s Crystal Palace win, which is a significant boost. Ruben Dias is listed among the bench options and is expected to be involved.

Player Spotlights

The names who could bend Wembley.

Cole Palmer: There is the Palmer who exists in league football, who arrived quietly from City and became one of the best attackers in England. And then there is the other one: the player who scored a stoppage-time penalty against Manchester City, his former club, in a 4-4 draw in his first Chelsea season. Nine Premier League goals this season, inconsistent by his own high standards. But Wembley, and City specifically, seem to do something to him.

Enzo Fernandez: Scored the only goal in the semi-final. Six goal involvements in nine FA Cup games for Chelsea. In a team stripped of options and confidence, Fernandez has found a second wind in this competition specifically.

Erling Haaland: Twenty-six Premier League goals this season. Fastest player ever to reach 100 Premier League goals, doing so in just 111 appearances. And yet: nine finals for City, zero goals in any of them. Wembley specifically is the one stadium where he has played multiple times without scoring for City. Nobody should pretend that is anything more than coincidence. But it exists, and at some point a player becomes aware of a pattern.

Jeremy Doku: The most dangerous wide player either team will put on the pitch on Saturday. Three goals and five assists across the last two FA Cup seasons, more than anyone else. Forty dribbles in that same period, more than any other Premier League player. City rested him on Wednesday to make sure he arrives with full legs and full willingness.

Joao Pedro: Twenty-three goals across all competitions, Chelsea’s top scorer by a distance. A January arrival who has quietly become the focal point of whatever attack McFarlane can assemble.

Bernardo Silva: City’s captain this season after Kyle Walker’s departure. He has been in the background of the City narrative for much of the year but as the games have got bigger, he has grown. The player most likely to make Rodri’s absence feel smaller than it is.

Head to Head

City have owned this fixture since 2021.

City have not lost to Chelsea in 14 meetings – eleven wins and three draws. That run began the day after they lost the Champions League final to Chelsea in 2021. The April league meeting, a 3-0 at Stamford Bridge, is the one that lingers. City were surgical from the second half onwards. Caicedo gave the ball away for the third. Chelsea had the better of the first half and then almost nothing after it.

Chelsea have failed to score in their last four Wembley finals. Four. The most recent goal was Pulisic, fifth minute, 2020.

They may have more occasion to attack on Saturday than they have had in those league meetings, because a cup final shapes the game differently. Or the fear may settle in again once the arch is overhead.

Prediction

The data says City. The cup says wait.

The data says City. The form says City. The managerial situation, the injury list, the 14-game unbeaten run against this opponent, the fact that City rested their best players specifically for this, all of it points in the same direction.

But here is the thing about Chelsea in cup football this season. They are not the same team that collapsed in the league. They defend deeper. They are harder to break down. They have beaten every team put in front of them in this competition and shut Leeds out completely in the semi-final. McFarlane, for all the implausibility of his presence in a Wembley dugout, has found a version of Chelsea that at least knows what it is trying to do.

City are the favourites. Haaland fit, Doku fresh, Guardiola in the dugout, a domestic double within reach. The numbers are overwhelming and the context almost absurd on Chelsea’s side.

And yet. Chelsea last won this trophy at Wembley in 2018, beating Manchester United 1-0. A single goal. Clean sheet. Against the odds. Sometimes that is all it takes, and sometimes the strangest seasons produce the strangest endings.

The Bottom Line City to win. But bring a longer half time. City to win. But the market does not wait for the final whistle. One final. One wounded club. One favourite with every number behind them. Wembley still gets the last word.

Also read:

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PSG, Arsenal and the UCL Trophy: A Love Triangle Directed by the Predictions Market
Ten Things That Move Football Markets. Most Traders Check Two.

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