Limit Orders vs Market Orders in Prediction Markets: When Each Wins
You thought you were buying at 0.54. The screen said 0.54. You clicked buy, set the size, confirmed. Your fill…
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Prediction Market Data as Alternative Data: What Funds Actually Use It For
The portfolio manager had been watching a Polymarket FDA approval market for three weeks. When the YES price climbed from…
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Using LLMs to Research Prediction Markets
You asked an AI model about a Senate race. It gave you a confident answer with structured reasoning, cited polling…
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Exposure Management: How to Stop One Event From Sinking Your Book
The US election settled on Polymarket in a single evening in November 2024. Some traders lost one position that night….
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Superforecasters, AI Models, and Markets: Who Calibrates Best?
Philip Tetlock ran a 20-year experiment. He asked thousands of experts to make probabilistic predictions about future events. Political scientists….
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Real-Time Prediction Market Data: Sources, Latency, and What Clean Feeds Cost
Before you can act on a Polymarket edge, the price has to be correct. Before the price can be correct,…
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Line Movement in Prediction Markets: Reading Sharp Moves Before They Finish
The Polymarket market on a top-flight football match moved 6 cents in 11 minutes with no visible news. No injury…
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Trading the News: An Event Driven Playbook for Prediction Markets
The team sheet dropped at 12:00. By 12:03 the Polymarket match winner market had moved 11 cents. By 12:07 it…
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How to Read Polymarket Signals: A Field Guide
You open a market you have been watching. The price jumped 7 cents in 20 minutes. Volume is up. There…
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Trading Signals That Actually Move Event Markets
The injury confirmation dropped at 2:14 PM. By 2:17 PM the Polymarket price had moved 9 cents. By 2:19 PM…
