Correlated Markets in Prediction Markets: Managing Portfolio Risk
You hold YES on the incumbent winning the presidency, YES on their party keeping the Senate, and YES on their…
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Bayesian Updating in Prediction Markets: Revise Probabilities as News Breaks
The injury report drops. The star player is questionable, not out. Half the market treats “questionable” like “out” and dumps…
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Implied Probability Calculator: Read Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
A YES contract at 61 cents is not “61% likely to happen” in the clean way most people assume. Part…
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Edge Decay in Prediction Markets: Why Alpha Disappears
You found the mispricing. You were right about the direction. You still lost money, because by the time your order…
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Calibration in Prediction Markets: How to Measure Forecast Accuracy
You went 4 for 5 last month. It felt like proof you had figured something out. Then you actually ran…
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Information Asymmetry: Who Knows What, and When, in Event Markets
A wallet on Polymarket opened a large YES position on Spain failing to beat Cape Verde roughly twenty minutes before…
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Market Efficiency in Prediction Markets: Are They Really Smarter Than the Crowd?
The 2024 US presidential market on Polymarket carried more than a billion dollars in volume before a single vote was…
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Half Kelly, Quarter Kelly, Full Kelly: Choosing Your Fraction
Full Kelly on a 24% edge means putting 24% of your bankroll on one Polymarket position. Read that again. That…
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Kelly Criterion for Prediction Markets: Sizing Positions When Odds Move
You spotted the edge at 11:43. A match winner market priced at 44 cents, and your pre-match research put fair…
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The Market Has Belgium Right. The Totals Disagree.
$334,000 traded. Pinnacle and the prediction market within 1.2 cents on every outcome. One coin-flip line that makes no sense…
