Half Kelly, Quarter Kelly, Full Kelly: Choosing Your Fraction
Full Kelly on a 24% edge means putting 24% of your bankroll on one Polymarket position. Read that again. That…
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Kelly Criterion for Prediction Markets: Sizing Positions When Odds Move
You spotted the edge at 11:43. A Fed meeting market priced at 44 cents, and your read of the minutes…
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The Market Has Belgium Right. The Totals Disagree.
$334,000 traded. Pinnacle and the prediction market within 1.2 cents on every outcome. One coin-flip line that makes no sense…
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The Market Can’t Separate Japan from a Draw. That’s the Story.
$1.2 million traded. Pinnacle and the prediction market within 1.5 points on every outcome. Two injury-hit squads. One number that…
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Prediction Market Traders Have Already Decided Brazil vs Morocco. Or Have They?
$836,000 traded. Pinnacle and the prediction market agree to four decimal places. Three outcomes. Here’s what the money thinks –…
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The Market Thinks America Can’t Win Its Own World Cup Opener
$490K traded. Home soil. A 24-place ranking gap. And the sharpest sportsbook in the world has USA below 50 cents….
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Korea Republic, Czechia, and the Match That Opens the World Cup
Korea win: 36.5 cents. Czechia win: 32.5. Draw: 31.5. Three markets, $558,000 in trades, and not one of them willing…
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The Market Is Wrong About The Ballon D’Or. Here Is Why the World Cup Changes Everything.
The UCL final settled nothing. The World Cup will settle everything. The prediction market has Harry Kane as the favourite…
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PSG, Arsenal and the UCL Trophy: A Love Triangle Directed by the Predictions Market
A 15-cent gap between the same team across two markets is where this final starts. On Friday, the match market…
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What $1.2 Billion in Trades Says About Who Wins the 2026 World Cup
Who the smart money is backing, who has been faded, and the wildcards worth watching. The 2026 FIFA World Cup…
