Positive EV Trading: A Practical Framework for Prediction Markets
You bought YES at 0.54. Your research was thorough. Your estimate was careful. The market resolved NO. That night you…
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EWC Dota 2 2026 Prediction Market: Why Two Teams at 9% Are Not the Same Trade
Two teams. Same price. The market thinks it is treating them equally. It is not. On Polymarket’s EWC Dota 2…
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Market Making on Polymarket: How to Earn the Spread
You do not have to be right about the outcome to make money on Polymarket. You have to be right…
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Correlated Markets in Prediction Markets: Managing Portfolio Risk
You hold YES on the incumbent winning the presidency, YES on their party keeping the Senate, and YES on their…
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Bayesian Updating in Prediction Markets: Revise Probabilities as News Breaks
The injury report drops. The star player is questionable, not out. Half the market treats “questionable” like “out” and dumps…
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Implied Probability Calculator: Read Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
A YES contract at 61 cents is not “61% likely to happen” in the clean way most people assume. Part…
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Edge Decay in Prediction Markets: Why Alpha Disappears
You found the mispricing. You were right about the direction. You still lost money, because by the time your order…
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Calibration in Prediction Markets: How to Measure Forecast Accuracy
You went 4 for 5 last month. It felt like proof you had figured something out. Then you actually ran…
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Information Asymmetry: Who Knows What, and When, in Event Markets
A wallet on Polymarket opened a large YES position on Spain failing to beat Cape Verde roughly twenty minutes before…
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Market Efficiency in Prediction Markets: Are They Really Smarter Than the Crowd?
The 2024 US presidential market on Polymarket carried more than a billion dollars in volume before a single vote was…
